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Gold Coast housing market predictions: 2023 and beyond

By Andrew Bell

Despite the recent market correction, a substantial number of investors maintain a bullish outlook on the Gold Coast housing market. This positive sentiment is, in part, supported by the Gold Coast housing market's resilience through the ongoing fluctuations seen across Australia's real estate landscape.

The question at hand is whether investors should maintain their optimism in the Gold Coast's property market beyond 2023. To address this, below we'll delve into a brief retrospective of the market's historical trends, evaluate its current state, and present informed projections for its future trajectory.

The Gold Coast's housing market in recent history

Across time, the Gold Coast's real estate market has demonstrated remarkable growth, sustainability, and resilience. It has successfully weathered multiple economic downturns and established itself as a highly coveted location for property investment.

Over a period of 35 years, from the mid-1980s to 2021, median housing prices in the Gold Coast have surged by 1,077%, while unit prices have increased by 643.1% within the same timeframe.

These impressive figures can, in part, be attributed to the region's rapid population growth, with the number of residents ballooning from roughly 188,000 in the mid-1980s to approximately 732,000 today.

This increase in population has led to a corresponding surge in demand for real estate, as well as significant investments in infrastructure, amenities, and commercial development, making the Gold Coast an increasingly attractive location for residential investment.

The 2022 market correction

In 2022, prospective investors in Australian real estate began to wonder whether the market's bubble would eventually burst. The answer to this question, having become increasingly apparent in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, arose through Australia's 2022/23 market correction — affecting some regions more severely than others.

The Gold Coast's housing market, as we previously touched upon, has demonstrated resilience in the face of nation-wide market fluctuations. In late 2022, the Gold Coast's residential market experienced a modest 1.5% decline, dropping from $940,000 to $925,000. This is in stark contrast to the nation-wide decrease, which occurred at a rate more than five times that of the Gold Coast.

Regarding the Australian housing market correction more generally, Sydney experienced a decline of -10.9%, while Melbourne declined by -5.9%. Similarly, Brisbane, a Queensland counterpart of the Gold Coast, was hit hard with a significant decrease of -6%.

The Gold Coast housing market in 2023

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant shift in Australians' preferences, with an increasing number of individuals desiring to live near the coast. This trend toward beach-front living has yielded wonderful results for existing Gold Coast homeowners, who have observed a 32.2% appreciation in housing value compared to pre-COVID levels.

This aligns with the findings of the recent PropTrack Listings Report, which outlines that the inventory of properties available for sale on the Gold Coast had increased by 12.6% compared to the previous year. This represents the most substantial annual growth in property availability in the region since 2018.

Certain Gold Coast regions have exhibited greater growth than others over the past year. Surfers Paradise, for instance, has seen a significant 13.6% increase in median house prices, which now sit at $2.9 million. Similarly, Robina's median house price currently stands at around $1 million, having experienced a growth of 6.1% over the past year.

Conversely, certain suburbs have experienced a decline in property value. As an example, Currumbin Waters has suffered a decrease of -2.4% over the last 12 months, with the median house price currently standing at $1.1m.

On the whole, suburbs all across the Gold Coast are becoming increasingly attractive to individuals and families, not only within Australia but also globally. In the years 2022 and 2023, the Gold Coast experienced a population increase of 1.47%, equating to 10,637 individuals who are seeking a coastal, sun-filled lifestyle. 

This steady influx of individuals into the Gold Coast, paired with proven market stability, serve as significant motivating factors for many investors who place their confidence in the Gold Coast housing market.

What the future holds for Gold Coast's housing market

Further the aforementioned 2023 Gold Coast influx, projections indicate that this trend will continue with the region expected to reach one million residents by 2050.

This population growth will likely result in increased demand for housing, placing upward pressure on property prices. Additionally, the region's stunning natural beauty and desirable climate are predicted to further fuel the desire for a beachfront lifestyle among both domestic and international individuals and families. Given these factors, the Gold Coast housing market represents an attractive opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the growing demand for property in the area.

Australia-wide projections

The prevailing thought on the minds of potential Australian investors and home-owners alike pertains to the timeline for Australia's recovery from the recent market correction. While there are variations in forecasts, the general consensus is one of optimism: The Australian property market will appreciate in the next decade.

Melbourne is expected to achieve a median home value of $1.5 million in 2030, following an average 7.9% annual increase over the past four decades. Similarly, Sydney is forecast to continue its growth trajectory at the same rate as the past thirty years, reaching an average house price of $1.8 million by 2030.

Additionally, Adelaide is anticipated to maintain its bullish momentum witnessed in 2022, with an expected average housing value of $1m by 2030. Collectively, these forecasts indicate a future of cautious optimism for Australia's housing market, with a projected trend of steady growth over the coming decade.

Queensland projections

The Queensland government's budget allocation of $37.6 billion toward infrastructure spending, combined with the upcoming 2032 Brisbane Olympics, are anticipated to attract considerable attention to the Queensland region — in turn, boosting property prices.

More specifically, following a 340% increase in housing value over the past three decades, it is anticipated that median house prices in Brisbane will reach $1.2 million within the next decade. This is a significant increase compared to the projected median Brisbane house price for 2023-2024 of approximately $720,000.

Gold Coast projections

It is estimated, and widely agreed upon by experts, that the median house price on the Gold Coast will likely exceed $2.5 million by 2030. This projected price growth can be owed to various factors such as its popularity as a tourist destination, favourable climate, historical resilience of its real estate market, and the growing number of individuals seeking a beachside lifestyle.

This is built on the back of the Gold Coast's historical resilience in the residential market and the overall confidence in its economy and public infrastructure. With a diverse appeal to university students, families, and business professionals, the Gold Coast is poised for sustained growth and prosperity.

If you are among those considering making a move to the beautiful Gold Coast, or are simply interested in further understanding of the Gold Coast real estate market, our team can help. Get in touch today!

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