Andrew Bell’s Market Wrap: The Latest Signpost to the Market

Issue 14 | Thursday June 4th 2020 | The Latest Signpost to the Market

Hi, Andrew Bell here with you

As we emerge further and further from COVID-19 restrictions it is no surprise more and more attention is being put on the real estate market. Many people are wanting to make decisions but are uncertain about the current market conditions, and of course have concerns about the future.

We always like to talk facts rather than opinions. Most factual information relating to the entire country’s real estate performance is sourced from a multitude of sources by independent research houses, and as a result it takes quite some time to be gathered and analysed. It does not give that quick finger-on-the-pulse information people are seeking.

One of the benefits of being part of Ray White, Australia’s largest real estate group by a country mile selling 1 in every 9 homes across Australia, is that we are uniquely placed to provide our clients with the most relevant and timely information and data gathered on a daily basis from all corners of the country. I share some of that information with you today.

In April 2020 we sold 3,012 properties totalling $2.27 billion across Australia. This is quite a remarkable month when you consider much of the economy and the community was in lockdown. It was just 8.8% less than in April 2019. In terms of settled sales, the total value was $3.16 billion which was 10.7% higher than April 2019.

The latest weekends national auction clearance rate posted a very healthy 66%, and we are only talking about sales under the hammer. A lot more sales would have been negotiated in the hours or days after the auction which is why we generally see Ray White’s auction results well into the 90% bracket.

It is interesting to see now that we registered, on average, 4.6 bidders for every auction throughout the country in May, which is a new record for numbers of bidders.

We all know the basic driver of any market is the balance between supply and demand. If supply is above demand then prices fall and if demand is above supply then prices rise, and occasionally you just get a balanced market. Let’s have a look at supply.

The chart below illustrates the reduced number of new listings that are currently coming onto the market and these figures were up to the end of May 2020. It compares to the prior two years. What it is showing is the number of properties ‘for sale’ has reduced significantly. This means that buyers in the marketplace have considerably less to choose from.

We now turn our attention to demand. A forward projector of buyer demand is loan pre-approvals. Below is the chart of pre-approvals that has come out of Loan Market, one of Australia’s largest independent broker group that settles over $830 million in loans per month.

You can see the pre-approvals have trended upwards recently and it actually shows higher levels of pre-approvals compared to twelve months ago.

The chart below tracks online enquiries made through Ray White websites over the past three years. It also shows that online enquiries are above levels of the same time last year. Take note here as well that the online digital platform Realestate.com.au also records that online viewings are up over 50% greater than twelve months ago.

The graph below illustrates the average number of registered bidders per auction and you can see there that has been increasing through 2020.

We can all speculate why, but it is actions that speaks louder than words. What we have been seeing now is that consistently for many months there have been more sales occurring in the marketplace than new listings coming onto the market, and so the supply of property and the choice for buyers has been reducing month on month. However, May is suggesting that we are starting to turn the corner nationally where for the Ray White Group there were 4,450 sales, which is a great number, however, for the first time in a long time, new listings were much higher  totalling 4,206 meaning more stock is coming on the market.

Time does not permit to try and get into the speculation of the future. What the above information does say is that for anyone thinking of selling at some stage this year, now is the right time. Beyond question the current climate will change and we are likely to see more sellers come on the market irrespective of the volume of buyers, and so this unique position we are in at present with an acute shortage will pass.

My final graph below is just showing why the finger-on-the-pulse information coming out of Ray White is a reliable indicator of the market. The graph shows online listing data based on new listings listed on domain.com.au. It shows just how large Ray White’s listing market share is in the industry. The information I have provided today is a real indication of what is happening right throughout the market right now.

I should note here that in unsettling or uncertain times more and more people move to a market leader, and that is certainly happening in our company. As a result, we are looking for more experienced people to join our sales force as we continue to grow larger and larger market share. Our Head of Recruitment, Karen Lappin who will be delighted to chat with you if you want to join the market leaders, she can be contacted via k.lappin@rwsp.net.

Well, here we are officially in winter and there is no better place in the country to enjoy a winter than the Gold Coast. I can’t help but think each day how blessed I am to live in this magnificent part of this spectacular country. Come join us as a permanent resident or as a regular holidaymaker. We are here to help you with all your real estate needs. Have a great fortnight until I’m with you again.

Kind regards,

Andrew Bell, OAM
Chief Executive Officer
The Ray White Surfers Paradise Group

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