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Andrew Bell’s Market Wrap: Record Numbers Migrate to Queensland

By Andrew Bell

Issue 03 | Thursday 11 February 2021 | Record Numbers Migrate to Queensland

Hi, Andrew Bell here with you and we have just completed one of the most phenomenal months in the history of Gold Coast real estate. On all key stats it broke records left, right and centre. Well over 7,000 enquiries generated through not only all The Event marketing but the powerhouse Ray White lead generators. It resulted in just under 4,000 physical property inspections and it was no surprise that record volumes of sales and so many record sale prices occurred.

What is really behind all of this? No question a massive reassessment of people’s lifestyles which is creating a lot of shifts in real estate. Yet there are parts of Australia that are not receiving any significant benefits whilst other areas such as the Gold Coast are rewriting the record books.

When you peel all the layers away what is at the core of the strength of the Gold Coast property market is our population growth. Population growth is always made up of two components: 1) national growth through a greater number of births over deaths, and 2) through migration and immigration, and there has been a big shift in both of those. The latest figures released show that Australia’s birth rate has fallen to the lowest rate in a century which means our population growth through more births than deaths has substantially fallen. The second factor that drives population growth, which of course leads to a greater demand for real estate, is immigration. With the borders closed there is virtually zero immigration. It used to be around 200,000 per year and although we don’t have the official figures for 2020 it will only show some growth in January and February of 2020. There will be none this year with the borders closed and with the Government not wanting to bring more people into the country until unemployment declines further. So, Australia as a country is in fact experiencing its lowest population growth in decades, yet we have unprecedented demand for property here on the Gold Coast. This is the foundation of our market. What is driving our market is the internal Australian migration from certain population centres to others. We have just passed the 1-year mark since the Gold Coast recorded its first COVID-19 case and we could not be prouder of the fact that a year on we are fundamentally COVID-19 free and we have never recorded 1 COVID-19 related death. It is no surprise that as people from around Australia reassess where the best place is for them to be living going forward, Queensland, but in particular the Gold Coast, has rated so highly.

This week some headline numbers are starting to surface but as always with record keeping, there is a considerable lag. However, look at these numbers for the nine months of 2020 to September: Net migration for NSW was a 13,605, Victoria was 6,201, and Queensland was +20,255. These numbers are before the real momentum of migration to Queensland even started and encompassed the period when we had our strongest border lockdown. It will be several more months before we get the official figures for the December quarter which will undoubtedly show a significant spike, but we won’t really start to get a true picture of the volume of people migrating here until we get the first six months of 2021.

The reality is that people doing their buying in November and December will not move here until January or February and those who have been buying at present won’t show up as statistical numbers until somewhere closer to the middle of the year, yet at the coal face as a real estate company we are recording incredible volumes of interstaters. Not all of those who are buying are actually moving here right now but are buying and are planning to move here at a later stage.

Now, not all from NSW or VIC will choose to live here and as the economies of the southern states get back into somewhat of a normal mode and as severe lockdowns become a thing of the past, the desire to move will lessen, and so this phenomenon will reduce in size over time. For the present, it has created a huge injection into the Gold Coast property market, and it has transformed our real estate market forever. The days of booms and busts are well and truly behind us as a good solid platform has developed in the market. I will touch on that more in upcoming eNewsletters.

I want to thank so many of our wonderful clients who have been very generous in their feedback to us about The Event 2021. It re-wrote the record books, it profiled the Gold Coast like never before, and we are proud of the way we have grown and developed the Gold Coast property market over the past 30-years. We will continue to do so for many years to come with that wonderful combination of experienced and well proven leadership with a young, passionate, and driven sales and property management team. A magic combination.

Until I am with you in a fortnights time, let’s keep supporting one another and look for ways to inject positivity into all those we associate with.

Warm Regards,

Andrew Bell, OAM
Chief Executive Officer
The Ray White Surfers Paradise Group

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