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Andrew Bell’s Market Update: Opportunities Like This Do Not Arise Often

By Chelsea Gates

Issue 11  |   May 24th, 2018  |  Opportunities Like This Do Not Arise Often

What a treat i’ve got for you today. You are the first to see through 36-38 Karina Crescent, Broadbeach Waters. This is simply an amazing home. Just under 2,000 sqm of land, European design – just have a look.


A bit of a landmark moment for Queensland where on the 15th of May at 3pm precisely the State’s population hit 5 million. I guess that number is in keeping with a little of what I have talked about in recent weeks, and that is the fact that populations throughout the world keep growing in size all the time.

With that population growth, we naturally have to keep up with building supply. I want to touch on two points here. The first is brand new dwelling supply on the Gold Coast. Looking at small timeframes is never healthy so looking over the past 5 years we see there were 19,000 new dwellings registered for sale. However, there was a need in that same time frame to build some 24,000 dwellings to handle the growing population. That means that over those 5 years Gold Coast new housing supply was undersupplied by 5,000 new dwellings, which equates to an undersupply in the order of 20%.

It is estimated that there are approximately 9,250 new residential dwellings, or allotments approved but not yet developed or registered for sale, on the Gold Coast. Therefore, based on an underlying demand to build 5,000 new dwellings per annum, this equates to less than 2 years supply, yet if we assume that the 5,000 undersupply of the past 5 years were to be absorbed then the real new housing supply drops to just 4,250 dwellings or about 10 months’ supply. That still means we have an acute shortage.

Looking a little closer at the approved developments, we see most of those are in small infill projects where for example there were 121 new residential projects approved on the Gold Coast over the past 12 months of which just 18 or a small 15% were for projects with more than 50 dwellings. Amazingly, some 70% of all the projects approved had just 1 or 2 dwellings.

If we look at the resale market, where there, of course, is the most sales activity, we can look at this in three different categories. The first being detached housing where there are usually around 8,500 sales per annum. Well, at present, there are just 4,850 houses currently listed for sale which is 7 months’ supply. Not bad and could be described as a normal market. In the apartments space we see there are generally 10,000 sales per annum across the entire Gold Coast and currently there are 3,150 apartments listed for sale which is 4 months’ supply. This means it is more of a sellers’ market than a buyers’ market in apartments. Finally, the townhouse market where we generally see around 4,000 sales per annum, but presently there are only 900 townhouses currently listed for sale which is just 3 months’ supply. This means that it is very much a sellers’ market in townhouses.


Out of interest, the four highest-selling suburbs by sales volumes on the Gold Coast is Upper Coomera with some 469 sales in the 2017 calendar year, Robina with 308 sales, Helensvale with 291 sales and Pacific Pines with 239. As you can see, three of the top-selling suburbs are all in the northern suburbs and it just shows how strong the northern end of the Coast is.

Just as a bit of a summary on the market as a whole, we certainly saw some reduced activity during March as everyone got prepared for the Commonwealth Games. Many started leaving town before Easter and it did certainly quieten down our market. Now, post Games, it has been a terrific marketplace and what is really starting to become more apparent is that in most segments of the market there is a stock shortage. In other words, greater buyer demand than there are properties for sale. This certainly suggests that we are going to continue to see price growth moving forward but the degree of shortness does vary from one suburb to another and we also see differences in price brackets. It is also great to see a return of some really strong activity from first home buyers.


Contact: Jackson Paradise: 0402 692 544 or
36-38 Karina Cres, Broadbeach Waters


That is it for this fortnight other than to say I am joining a number of other CEOs on the 21st of June for the National CEO Sleepout to fight homelessness. Sadly, the largest growing proportion of homeless people is women with their children escaping domestic violence.

The profile of a normal homeless person has changed dramatically and so it is increasingly important that we provide safe shelters and basic food and water for this growing group of people. I am honoured to have reached $10,000 been raised so far and I thought I would put it out there that if anyone would like to add anything from $10 upwards you can do so by going to the link on screen now and you will be forwarded a tax receipt directly from St Vincent de Paul. On behalf of the many homeless who really feel it during winter, a thank you in advance.


That is it for now and I look forward to being with you in a fortnights time.

Andrew Bell, OAM
Chief Executive Officer
The Ray White Surfers Paradise Group


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